Equalizing Teacher Pay - Bad Ruling is Good for Van
And so the Tennessee Supreme Court has ruled that the state must equalize teacher pay across all school districts. Some pundits may say this will help the gubernatorial candidacy of Phil Bredesen because it makes the process of managing the state within existing revenues tougher by $300 million or so a year - and Bredesen's campaign is built around his alleged management expertise.

Hogwash. The court's ruling is a bad one - more on that in a later post. But politically it is a gift for Van Hilleary that most assuredly can boost his chances of winning the governor's office - and hurt Bredesen's - if Hilleary takes advantage of it. Here's why:

1. The majority of people in Tennessee are opposed to the income tax.

2. His finger firmly in the political breeze, Phil Bredesen has campaigned as an anti-income tax candidate by stressing that he not currently support the creation of a state income tax to address the state's budget problems, but allows that he is open to embracing the income tax if unspecified "conditions" change. That's small comfort given that his record in public service is one of a serial tax raiser, and, other than rhetoric increasingly filled with weasel words and caveats, Bredesen's political career is unblemished by any actual record of active opposition to raising taxes or imposing an income tax.

3. The court's ruling represents a very real change of conditions - the very kind of thing liberal pro-income tax commentators, columnists and analysts have long said (eagerly) would increase the likelihood of an income tax.

4. The attorney who filed the lawsuit and won the case is an avid and outspoken supporter of the income tax. Supporters of equalizing teacher pay have long pointed to the pending lawsuit with eager hope that it would turn out the way it did and force the legislature to adopt the income tax. In fact, proponents of the income tax had hoped the court would issue its ruling during the last legislative session, increasing pressure for an income tax.

Indeed, the court's ruling is seen as a godsend by the pro-income tax forces, who long before the ruling came down were already claiming that if the court ruled as it did, only an income tax could solve the problem and meet the court's mandate. That group heavily favors Bredesen for governor - a candidate, I remind you , who has already said he could change his mind on the income tax if "conditions" change.

If the Legislature were to pass an income tax solely to fund teacher pay equalization - "for the children" of course - a Gov. Bredesen would surely sign it into law or at least not veto it and instead allow it to become law without his signature, claiming it is the Legislature's solution to the new "conditions."

A Gov. Hilleary would veto the tax - and likely would strangle one in its crib by proposing a budget that addresses the court's mandate without requiring an income tax. After all, in a state that will spend upwards of $20 billion next year, shifting a few priorities to find $300 million won't be impossible - and won't require an income tax despite what the pro-IT forces will claim.

How does Hilleary take advantage of the court ruling? Simple. Issue press releases and make statements to the effect that, "Phil Bredesen's answer to every problem Nashville faced was to raise taxes. If he's governor and the Legislature attempts to solve the teacher pay issue with an income tax, Bredesen won't stop them. Van Hileary will."

If voters realize there is yet another snout at the trough because of this court ruling, they'll realize their checkbooks are back in the crosshairs of the income taxers. And they'll vote for Van.

UPDATE:
Here's a link to the Tennessean story today on the teacher pay equalization lawsuit. Interestingly, the story says it will cost $40 to $450 million to meet the court's mandate. The same paper posted a story yesterday putting the cost at $12 to $400 million. Wow, the cost of government programs sure skyrocket in a hurry!