HobbsOnline

Steaming hot commentary on journalism, Tennessee, politics, economics, the war and more...

Name:
Location: Nashville, Tennessee, United States

10/24/2003

A Surplus of Bad Predictions
Yesterday's Nashville City Paper had an excellent column by local radio talkshow host Steve Gill who, after noting the state has a $30 million surplus two months into the fiscal year, remarked:

This year, Gov. Phil Bredesen proposed and the legislature passed a budget that essentially held the line on spending. Although it was touted as a budget that cut spending, the reality is that it only reduced the budget from expected growth levels; actual state spending went up slightly. Similar proposals in the past were met with screams and howls from the pro-tax crowd who claimed that children would starve, old people would die, and schools would close as a result of such insane budgeting. None of those dire predictions proved accurate.

When the legislature refused to pass an income tax last year and instead increased the sales tax to pay bills from massive spending during the past decade, the pro-tax crowd predicted that Tennesseans would flock across the borders to buy their groceries to avoid the high sales tax and that collections would never meet expectations. Wrong again.

Now those same naysayers are claiming Tennessee revenue collections are illusory and disguise fundamental flaws in the tax structure that spell doom for all of us. Why should we believe anything they say when they have never been right about anything in the past?
Good question, Steve. Answer: we shouldn't believe them because they are wrong.