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10/31/2003

Bush Economy: Record Employment
One of the Democratic presidential wannabes – Howard Dean – was yapping to USA Today about the 7.2 percent GDP growth in the third quarter and said this: "Bush has compiled the worst economic record since the Great Depression and it is going to take a lot more than one quarter of growth to clean it up." (It's in today's printed edition – I don't have a web link.)

Well, Mr. Dean. Perhaps you should look at this picture:


[from USA Today]

That's not one quarter of growth – it's eight quarters. The economy has been growing non-stop for two years.

But Democrats can't win the White House by telling the truth about the economy, so they will lie and talk about "one quarter of growth."

USA Today had some good coverage of the economic growth news today, including this story. The New York Times offers this analysis of the politics.

Also, I went hunting for stats and found that there are more people working today than when George W. Bush took office back in January 2001. That's right – more people are working now than at the end of the Clinton administration. That's not a partisan shot at Clinton, it's just a statement of fact. The source for it is the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

The number of people working in January, 2001, when George Bush took office: 136.0 million

The number of people employed as of September 2003: 137.6 million
That's right. There are 1.6 million more Americans working today than at the end of the Clinton administration. So, how is it that Democrats can claim millions of jobs lost under President Bush? And how come the unemployment rate is higher now than when Bush took office?

Simple. First, there have been layoffs. Lots of them. But layoffs don't matter much if those people quickly find jobs. As the BLS stats show, many of them have found jobs. But the working-age population has grown faster than the number of jobs - according to the BLS, the civilian labor force numbered 142 million when Bush took office, and by September 2003 it had grown to 146.5 million. So even though the Bush economy - after two years of fitful growth - has achieved a level of employment unmatched in history, the unemployment rate still has risen, from 4.2 percent when George Bush took office to 6.1 percent now.

Five numbers are key – the unemployment rate, the number of unemployed people, the number of employed people, and size of the workforce, and the ratio of employment to working-age population.

In September 2003, the unemployment rate of 6.1 percent reflects 9 million people unemployed. The employment-population ratio - the proportion of the population age 16 and older with jobs was 62.0 percent in September.

In January 2001, the month Bush took office, the number of unemployed rose by about 300,000 to nearly 6.0 million, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.2 percent. And the employment-population ratio was 64.5 percent.

The Clinton economy peaked in April 2000, just before the technology-driven stock market bubble burst. That month, the unemployment rate was 3.9 percent, total employment stood at 135.7 million, and the employment-population ratio stood at 64.9 percent, a record high.

By December of 2000, the last full month of Clinton's administration, the unemployment rate had risen a bit to t 4 percent, there were 5.7 million people unemployed, and total employment stood at a new high of 135.8 million. But the employment-population ratio had fallen to 64.5 percent

By January 2003, the unemployment rate had risen to 5.7 percent, and the number of unemployed people had risen to 8.3 million – yet total employment stood at a new high of 137.5 million. The ratio had fallen to 62.5 percent.

And by June 2003, the unemployment rate had surged to 6.4 percent, and the number of unemployed people had reached 9.4 million – yet total employment had reached another record high of 137.7 million. The ratio had fallen to 62.3 percent.

Why? Simple. The workforce grew. More people than ever are working – but the labor force is larger than ever, too. Even so, despite two years of fitfully uneven economic growth - but still growth - a record number of Americans are working. With the Bush economic recovery now entering its third year on a roll, jobs will soon become even more plentiful - and the unemployment rate will fall. Also likely to fall: Howard Dean's chances of winning the White House on a pack of lies.