HobbsOnline

Steaming hot commentary on journalism, Tennessee, politics, economics, the war and more...

Name:
Location: Nashville, Tennessee, United States

7/24/2003

Tour de Lance Update
A Dutch rider won the 17th stage. Lance Armstrong and the rest of the leaders all finished 8:06 behind the stage winner, and there are no changes in the top-10 leader board. Lance still leads the overall race by 67 seconds over Jan Ullrich. Flat stage Friday, followed by crucial time trial on Saturday. Lance's comments on Tyler Hamilton's amazing breakaway win in Wednesday's stage 16 are here.

Ullrich rode the 12th stage individual time trial, 47 kilometers, in 58 minutes and 32 seconds, an average speed of 48.2 km per hour. That's 1:36 faster than Lance, who rode the stage at almost exactly 47 km per hour.
The Saturday time trial is 49 km long. To make up 67 seconds, Ullrich will need to ride each kilometer just 1.36 seconds faster than Armstrong. If Armstrong rides state 19 at just 1 km faster - 48 km - he would finish in 1:01:12 and 1Ullrich would have to ride the stage in 1:00:04 or better to take the yellow jersey.

I think I've got that figured right.

One other factor: time bonuses for stage wins and leading at mid-race checkpoints. The Tour could be decided on Saturday, if either man dominates in the time trial, but if the results are close - if Ullrich beats Armstrong by more than a minute but by not much more in the time trial, Sunday's final stage back to Paris could be a real race, for a change. Chris Carmichael, one of Armstrong's coaches, explains it all here, and explains why he thinks Lance will win the Tour de France:

Ullrich is definitely strong this year, but Lance lost the stage 12 time trial more due to dehydration than to lack of strength. He won't make the same mistake twice, and riding at full power he should be able to keep pace with the powerful German.
Whatever happens, it has been a phenomenally exciting TdF.