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Location: Nashville, Tennessee, United States

12/27/2002

War Update
As war with Iraq looks increasingly imminent, can the U.S. really fight two wars at one time? Or did the Clinton administration so hollow out the military in the 1990s that a move to liberate Iraq could open the door to North Korean adventurism? DefSec Donald Rumseld says we can. And we may have to as the North Koreans are very publicly restarting their nuclear weapons program and rattling sabers toward an appeasement-oriented South Korea.

And now the United Nations says North Korea is violating the terms of the 1953 cease-fire that ended the Korean War.

The North Korean army has brought light machine guns into the Demilitarized Zone, the United Nations Command on the Korean Peninsula said Friday -- a violation of agreements signed in 1953 at the end of the Korean War. A U.N.C. Military Armistice Commission investigation revealed that the North Koreans had brought into the DMZ automatic weapons, the kind that can be operated by crews. They were observed transporting, setting up and manning Type-73 light machine guns on six days between December 13 and December 20.

The two-war scenario is edging toward reality. Rowan Scarborough of the Washington Times looks at the critical question: can the U.S. successfully handle two simultaneous conflicts if we have to?

The United States is in the midst of a major military buildup in the Persian Gulf for what could well be an invasion this winter to oust Saddam from power. If North Korea attacks South Korea while the United States has troops invading Iraq, the Pentagon would be faced with a whirlwind of decisions. Some domestic units are designated for war in both the Pacific and Gulf theaters. Gen. Tommy Franks, who would direct an invasion of Iraq, might have to relinquish some of his requested 250,000 troops to block the North Korean advance. This could prolong the war against Iraq and increase U.S. casualties...

Pyongyang has picked this time to announce the resumption of its nuclear program as the United States is involved in a crisis in the Gulf to test Mr. Bush. One scenario is that Mr. Bush is forced to order air strikes on North Korea's nuclear facilities to prevent the quick assembly and use of nuclear weapons. North Korea, whose communist regime has brought famine to the country, may respond by invading South Korea.

North Korea has more than 1 million troops stationed near or on the border with South Korea. The warning time for an attack is measured in hours, not days. The United States has a "trip wire" force of 37,000 troops in South Korea and another 60,000 sailors, Marines and airmen in the region. They, and the well-trained South Korean army, would need reinforcements almost immediately to protect Seoul from a massive artillery barrage and occupation.

"In fact, the force in place is little more than an emergency 'stopper' that is supposed to hold until reinforcements arrive," said a Navy officer. "But the forces in Japan, Okinawa and the United States are already too shallow and will be further reduced for Iraq. I see no way they could take the offensive and win even if they could hold."

Things may get really dicey really fast really soon. But the alternative - letting psychos like Saddam Hussein and Kim Jong-Il build nuclear weapons - is beyond unthinkable.

UPDATE: THe Memphis Commercial-Appeal says North Korean nukes are really a problem for China to solve.