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Location: Nashville, Tennessee, United States

6/05/2002

A good sign?
The Knoxville News-Sentinel reports here that Gov. Sundquist is suddenly out stumping for business tax reform.

The paper says: Closing business tax loopholes to generate state revenue is still high on the Republican governor's tax reform agenda, but he said any legislative action on the issue this year is uncertain.

You'll remember that three years ago Gov. Sundquist launched his second term in office with a political head-fake: he proposed a business tax reform plan (designed to raise hundreds of millions more dollars) and then almost instantly dropped it in favor of pushing an income tax. Sundquist hasn't pushed business tax reform for three years. And now the state House is just three votes away from passing an income tax. So why, all of the sudden, is the guv suddenly back to pushing business tax reform? I've got a few theories.

Theory #1: Legacy. Although the governor wants the revenue from an income tax, he doesn't like the thought that it will be the biggest part of his legacy - and that if it passes, he'll go down in history as its prime author and will forever be unpopular. So, he's suddenly out pushing business tax reform again in order to camoflage his role in the income tax. If the legislature passes it, he'll claim he was never really for the income tax, but the legislature passed it instead of agreeing to business tax reform.

Theory #2: Game Over. They don't have the votes for the income tax in the House or Senate, and the governor knows it, so he is pushing business tax reform knowing it has no chance either, but at least this way whatever happens - severe budget cuts, an unpopular sales tax increase or some other plan - he won't be blamed for it.

Theory #3: Blame Business. Business will oppose his business tax reform plan, so business will be blamed for the income tax if it happens.

I'm guessing it is Theory #2. If you've got thoughts or a different plausible theory, email it to me and you might just see it published here.